It’s time ladies and gentleman. We’re through hump day and almost onto the weekend. As you probably know, this isn’t just any weekend. This is the moment we’ve been building to all spooky season, the chilling night when all sorts of monsters come out to creep and crawl in the dead of the night.
No, I’m not talking about you degens (although I know how scary I look after a bad beat). I’m talking about those ghastly creatures, who shade their appearance in costume and dark of the night in order to take advantage of an unsuspecting post-party victim. Like you. Or me.
These are the real thirst traps. Whether they’re not rowboat compliant or have the face of a gargoyle, Halloween gives millions of hideous people the chance to hide their flaws in makeup, skimpy clothing and dark lighting like some sort of slut mummy.
Bitter and Angered from a year of denial and time spent with their cats, these villains of the holiday will be out in full swing this Halloween, making sure they take full advantage of great-looking people like you and I who are out lowering our inhibitions with a few glasses of Boo-zy punch.
All I can say is be careful of the witches’ spell, my friends. And remember, the best way to protect yourself this Halloween is to stay socially distant from anyone you meet in the dark.
Now, onto my Thursday Night Football picks!
Falcons at Panthers (-2.5), 8:20 p.m.
Falcons +2.5; U51.5; Todd Gurley O63.5 rush yds, O0.5 rush TD; D.J. Moore O67.5 receiving yds; Matt Ryan O0.5 interceptions; Falcons FG first scoring play
The Falcons suck. Yes. We all know it, but let’s not pretend the Panthers are anything better than baked bread. Both teams can score, but the forecast is calling for wind, which could kill the over. To be honest, I would take the under regardless due to bookmakers swinging to overcorrect on overs, especially in a game like this where everyone is going to hammer the over. Be like the salmon, swim upstream against the current. Under 51.5.
McCaffrey is returning, but he had a serious injury and with Mike Davis being so effective in his absense, I fully expect them to ease their star running back into a regular workload.
I expect 10-15 touches for Davis, 5-10 for McCaffrey. No, they won’t be throwing to McCaffrey because if he gets blown up in the backfield it can mean bad news for the entire organization.
The real prop to focus here is D.J. Moore to go over 67.5 receiving yards. The third-year receiver looks as good as ever, at least partially due to the instant chemistry he seems to have with Teddy Bridgewater. While Moore has only reached 5 receptions in two games, he’s hit 67.5 receiving yards in 4/7 games and 93 yards in each of the past three. Falcons have the second worst passing defense in the NFL, averaging 333.4 yards per game allowed, making Moore’s floor rise just as much as his ceiling.
On the other side, things look good for Gurley III. He’s had over 20 touches in the past two games, a trend that should continue considering the Panthers porous run defense. Carolina is infamously bad at stopping running backs, and have allowed at least 100 rushing yards to every running back that has hit 20 carries. Add in Kamara and Latavious Murray who combined for 130 yards on 25 carries.
The Panthers also allowed touchdowns in four of their first five games, but have managed to tighten down and haven’t allowed a rush TD since. Despite this, Todd Gurley has 7 rushing touchdowns in six of seven games and will get his handful of chances to score on the goal line. Expect him to score (-121) and feel confident in it, with over 63.5 rushing yards seeming like a no-brainer.
Lastly, I’m taking a Matt Ryan pick (+115) and a Falcons FG for first score (+420). He threw only his third reception of the year in his last game against Carolina (week 5), which is crazy impressive for how much he throws. Expect reversion to the mean in the form of more picks, especially in the second-leg of division games. Odds are good on the field goal and I see them getting passed the 50 before Carolina, why not?