1. Gonzaga (15-0) (Kenpom 1, Net 2, RPI 5)
Not a ton to be said about Gonzaga. The knock against them used to be that they didn’t play anyone. Well, Mark Few went out and scheduled games against Kansas, Auburn, WVU, Iowa, and Virginia AND WON THEM ALL by an average of 14.8 points. They should go undefeated in conference play and there next real test wont be until they face their second opponent in the tournament.
2. Baylor (14-0) (Kenpom 2, Net 1, RPI 6)
Baylor and Gonzaga have made a clear case for 1a and 1b. Scott Drew’s team is now 40-4 since the beginning of last year. I know we all love to see upsets come March, but Baylor-Zags is the title game we all deserve. Brandon Clarke (36pts) and the Zags sent Baylor home in the 2nd round of the 2019 tournament and I don’t think the Bears have forgotten.
3. Michigan (13-1) (Kenpom 3, Net 3, RPI 2)
Unfortunately for Michigan, they were just beginning to make a case for themselves to be considered with the likes of Baylor and Gonzaga when COVID put their season on pause. Michigan is now 7th in Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency and 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The only other team to be top 10 in both is……Baylor.
4. Texas (11-2) (Kenpom 8, Net 10, RPI 4)
Texas has a real chance to get to a final four this year. Their only losses come to Villanova early in December and Texas Tech. However, both these loses came on their own home court. Texas is one of the better defensive teams in the country, and they can win those scrappy games that matter late in the season. With games remaining against Oklahoma (2), Kentucky, Baylor, WVU, and rematches remaining against Kansas and Texas Tech, they have an opportunity to make a clear case for a 1 seed.
5. Houston (13-1) (Kenpom 6, Net 4, RPI 1)
What Kelvin Sampson has been able to do with this Houston program since taking over in 2014 is quite impressive. Houston ranks 17th in adjO and 2nd in adjD, 2nd in FG% defense, 1st in scoring defense, and 11th in scoring margin. They lack the big marquee wins that some of the other top schools boast, but they have solid wins against Texas Tech and a Boise State team that very well could be a 2nd weekend team.
6. Villanova (10-1) (Kenpom 5, Net 6, RPI 14)
Villanova has been tough to gauge since suffering a loss to Virginia Tech on the 3rd day of the season. They’ve only played 2 games since Christmas where they escaped with a 2pt victory over Seton Hall and then got off to a slow start against Providence before pulling away in the second half. They have 4 games remaining against Uconn and Creighton to strengthen their resume before selection Sunday.
7. Virginia (10-2) (Kenpom 9 , Net 8, RPI 35)
It’s taken a while for Virginia to climb back up to the top tier after puzzling losses early in the season. A 1 point loss to a mediocre San Fransico team and a mollywhopping the day after Christmas against Gonzaga. The ACC isn’t quite as strong as we’re used to, but if Virginia can escape conference play with just 1 or 2 losses, they’ll be in the running for a 1 seed.
8. Texas Tech (11-4) (Kenpom 13, Net 14, RPI 72)
The Red Raiders are good. They might be the 4th best team in Texas, they might be the 2nd best team in Texas, but they’re certainly one of the best 12 teams in the country. Chris Beard’s team is holding their opponents to under 60.0 points while averaging 74.7 pts/g. They rank 4th in D-1 in turnover margin, 13th in TOs forced, 10th in scoring defense, and 19th in scoring margin. Mac McClung has eclipsed 20pts 6 times this season and he could make a major name for himself this March if Texas Tech gets hot.
9. Mizzou (10-2) (Kenpom 32, Net 23, RPI 3)
Missouri was picked to finish 10th in the SEC this season, but currently sit 2nd in the SEC with 1-2 less games played then the rest of the conference. They play Bama on Feb 6th, which should give us a better view on the conference as a whole.
10. Alabama (13-3) (Kenpom 10, Net 9, RPI 7)
When Nate Oats was in Buffalo, he wanted to play at a high tempo and launch a ton of threes. Well he’s in his second year at Alabama and Bama is 9th in adjusted tempo and Buffalo is 8th. They’re also averaging over 30 3pt attempts a game. Oats has proven his style can get wins in the tournament, as he’s already won games as a 13-seed and 6-seed with Buffalo. Now he has a once highly touted recruit in John Petty Jr. to make a run with and Petty Jr just went 8-10 from beyond the arc last week vs LSU.
11. Iowa (12-3) (Kenpom 4, Net 5, RPI 40)
I’m not quite sold on Iowa as one of the top teams in the country quite yet. They strike me as one of those 3 or 4 seeds that ends up getting bounced on the first day of the tournament. Iowa has a high powered offense that wants to shoot a ton of threes and has arguably the Player of the Year favorite in senior Luka Garza. However they’ve proven to be very vulnerable on the defensive end, which we saw last week in a home lost to Indiana where they gave up 50 points in the 2nd half. They’ve also given up 99 points to Gonzaga and 102 to Minnesota in losing efforts. If Iowa wants to make a deep run into the tournament they are going to have to improve on the defensive end.
12. Wisconsin (12-4) (Kenpom 11, Net 18, RPI 42)
This years Badger team has been very Jekyll and Hyde, some nights they look like a team that can make a final four run and other nights they look like a team primed for a 1st round KO. They let Michigan go on a 43-6 run against them when they faced two weeks ago and also have questionable loses to Marquette and to Maryland at home and then again this past week to a hot Ohio State team. The good news is Wisconsin will get plenty of opportunities to prove their worth between now and the end of conference play in a loaded Big 10.