First time doing this in a year, so I think it’s fair to start this weekly Thirsty Thursday Pick-of-the-Day at 0-0-0. Personal May record is 37-40 +9 units, but we’re looking to the future here.
Pick: Villarreal -115 @ Valladolid
Analysis: With three games left to play, Villareal is sitting in 7th of La Liga, 2 points behind Real Betis and 4 points behind Real Sociedad who currently hold Europa League spots. They are sixth best in La Liga on the road (6-7-4), outscoring opponents 28-19 (+9). They won the first game at home 2-0.
While they are only 2-3 in their last five league games, the losses came to Barcelona and Celta Vigo this past Sunday, where they got two red cards and conceded a penalty in extra minutes before halftime. They also faced (and defeated) Arsenal in the past two mid-week fixtures, moving on to Europa League final against Man U later this month.
They face Vallodolid, third to last in the league, on the edge of relegation, with four losses and a recent loss in their last 5 games. second to last at home (3-7-7), being outscored 18-26 (-8).
Table context:
- Betis has four draws and with a recent win in their last five, with three games left. Two are against the bottom four teams, one is their season ender at Celta Vigo.
- Sociedad has two games left, hosting Vallodolid Sunday and at Osasuna to end the season.
- Right behind Villareal is Celta Vigo with 50 points, coming off four wins in a row. They are gunning for a Europa league spot.
All four of these teams (including Villareal) are capable of moving in or out of the Europa league qualification. It is certainly crunch time for Emery’s men, who have to face Villareal and Real Madrid in their last two league games.
Both of those teams have locked up their Champions’ League spots for next year, but Villareal will probably be sitting people for their game against Real Madrid ahead of the Europa League Final only three days later. That makes getting three points here that much more important. If Villareal can’t win the Europa League Final, failing to qualify for it the next year would be an absolute kick in the nuts. All systems go.
Bottom line: I am going with Villareal -115 because they:
- Are in a heated race for a Europa League spot (Emery’s heart and soul)
- Play great on the road (6-7-4, +9) compared to Vallodolid which sucks at home (3-7-7, -8).
- Coming off a *mega* frustrating loss to Celta Vigo, who is now right on their tail.
Looking forward to a W and seeing you next week.