Another week, another round of bets. Whether you’re in the red from betting women’s tennis all week (I’m not projecting…), or just want to build your bankroll ahead of football this weekend, here’s a few interesting bets you should look into.
Buccaneers at Bears (+3.5)
Buccaneers -3.5 (-110); Allen Robinson anytime TD scorer (+140); David Montgomery O21.5 receiving (-124); Rob Gronkowski TD (+165); Ronald Jones II O69.5 rush (-112), TD + win (-106)
This is for sure a tough game to call, both on the spread and on the O/U. The line is clearly sketchy, starting at Bears +6 and moving to +3.5 in a day. I’m avoiding the lines here and sticking to player props, but if I had to choose I would go Bucs -3.5.
The Bucs have the best rushing defense in the league right now (62.5 ypg allowed), which will force Nick Foles to throw. No, Tampa haven’t faced any good rushing teams, but that isn’t going to change this game. Take Allen Robinson to score a TD this game, he’s their best offensive weapon and will be Foles’ #1 target throughout the game.
Bears are ranked 20th in rushing and will be without Tarik Cohen, leaving David Montgomery to take the lions share of the carries and targets out of the backfield. Even against that Bucs D, as long as he doesn’t play like the Lions, I see him breaking 21.5 yards receiving yards (-124). U49.5 rushing.
On the other side, Chicago also has a great passing defense, ranked 9th in yards allowed per game. This is bad news for TB12, who doesn’t have many options left to throw to following Godwin’s hamstring injury, O.J. Howard being placed on the IR and Justin Watson sitting due to a chest injury.
That leaves two, hurt options: Mike Evans, who suffered an ankle injury last week which has held him out of practice. Scotty Miller also missed a few days because of a hip/groin injury, but practiced Wednesday and should be all set for Sunday. I expect both to play but not to do much considering their injuries.
That leaves two X-factors for the Bucs on offense. Ronald Jones II is back in the drivers’ seat, and should be the offensive focus in this game. While he was taking a back seat to Leonard Fournette, Jones showed he can handle the lead role last week, with 111 yards on 20 carries against the Chargers. You should see similar results this week, considering the Bears rank one spot below the Bolts in rushing yards allowed (No. 16, 115.0 ypg). I think taking the over on Jones rushing is a surefire (O69.5, -112). I’m also taking him to score and win, if he’s moving then the clock alone should take care of the Bears.
The second X is more like a capital G, and that G stands for GRONK. The ex-retired ex-Patriot has been lackluster to say the least in his first four games for the Bucs. However, with Howard out he is once again Brady’s number one option at tight end.
While the Bears passing defense has been good, most of the yards they have allowed have been to tight ends and slot receivers. This includes: 5 catches, 56 yards, 1 TD for T.J. Hockenson; 6 catches, 65 yards for Evan Engram; 3 catches, 58 yards for Zach Pascal.
I know those receiving numbers aren’t huge, but they show the Bears can be exposed in the middle of the field and suggest a great opening for Gronk and Brady to reignite their historic chemistry in their first prime time game of the season. Gronk anytime scorer +165.