Another week, another opportunity for me to turn my tides in the Champions’ League. I’m currently 5-1-8 this year in the tournament’s group stage (39.3% win rate), entering the third week up a mere 0.2 units. This is compared to my 21-2-31 record (40.74%) across all soccer bets, down -0.73u.
I clearly need a rebound as we head into the thick of this stage. I’ll be throwing in a few games I think have little risk with a small parlay with a good chance to hit.
Abroad in smaller leagues, I have been starting to play a combo of DNB’s (draw, no bet) and Draw moneyline plays to hit 2 sides of the results. Draws occur quite frequently and with the shaky refereeing in lower leagues there is tons of money lost from late draws or wins due to shoddy calls.
When it’s close to a coin flip who wins, this isn’t the best strategy. But if you are leaning heavy to one side and don’t want to risk that big chance of a draw, this can be a good way to cover yourself.
If your team wins, good you have offsetting bets and walk away close to even. If you hit the draw, your DNB will void and you’ll end up with a heavy moneyline in your bank account.
Champions’ League Matchups
Liverpool (DNB -120) at Atalanta (+215), Draw +300, 3 p.m.
This is an interesting matchup. Atalanta is home and has been playing great the past couple weeks. They play with an open attacking plan and can score when needed. Liverpool leads the group table and has won their past five games, but has not looked their best and could definitely be in danger of an upset. I think this ends in a draw, with both teams scoring two, but Liverpool’s overall pedigree edges them out as favorites. I’m going to DNB Liverpool (1.2u to win 1u), with 1u on the draw (+300). Liverpool win I break even, draw wins 3u and Atalanta loses -2.2u.
Bayern -1.5 (-115) at RB Salzburg, 3 p.m.
The German giants will look to seal up the top of the table quickly, and do so my flexing their muscles against a weaker Bundesliga team trying to weasel their way into the standings. I don’t see Salzburg matching the quality depth on Munich, with a two goal loss looking good. Also goin to shoot for over 3.5 goals, considering each of Salzburg’s first two matches hit this mark.
Ajax (-120) at FC Midtjylland, 3 p.m.
The line is so close because of a recent COVID scare, but it appears the players in question have traveled with the team and will play. Ajax has been hammering their domestic league and will be going against a weaker side from the Danish league (eh). -120 is great value, and I would also put some money at O2 team goals at +125.
Parlay: Manchester City ML, Ajax ML, Borussia Monchengladbach DNB 1H, Liverpool/Atalanta O3.5. 1u to win 5.6u
DNB Bets
Barrow PK -125 and Draw +240 at Grimsby Town, 2 p.m.
Both teams middle of the table. Grimsby Town has lost 2 of its past 4 games, tying the others but will look at bounce back with a win at home. Barrow with two wins and two ties in the same period, with 6 more goals scored on the season but three more allowed than Grimsby.
Barrow should win but I see Grimsby Town hunkering down at home for a 1-1 draw.
Botafogo PK +100 and Draw +210 at Cuiaba, 5 p.m.
Cuiaba leads 1-0 after the first leg of the two team’s Copa do Brasil matchup. Botafogo will have an uphill battle traveling and down a goal, but they are still in the higher division and have 11 draws this season (with 19 goals scored). I see Botafogo drawing the game but losing 2-1 on aggregate, but they will have their pedal to the metal to come back. At even money, the DNB safety makes sense.