After a great start to Monday, I completely fell apart in primetime, going 0-8 in the Buccaneers/Giants game. Luckily, I managed to crawl out of the hole today, covering Bayern -1.5, pushing Ajax O2 team total and a 4-leg parlay including Man City ML, Ajax ML, Monchengladbach PK 1H and Liverpool/Atalanta O3.5 (+560).
I’m just under even, keeping my head up and moving into a packed Wednesday with confidence. Let’s see how well we make it out of the first half of the group stage.
Champions’ League
Lazio PK (+100) at Zenit, 12:55 p.m.
Lazio sits at the top of their group following a great win over Dortmund and a tie with Club Brugge. Zenit has lost both of their games, looking the part of the last team in the group table. Getting DNB here seems like a trap, but seems like the play here considering Lazio will want to steal an away win and secure the top of the table before Zenit comes to visit next week. I see a Lazio 2-1 win, but 1-1 is entirely possible given they are on the road.
Manchester United -1, -1.5 (-115) at Istanbul Basakse, 12:55 p.m.
Manchester United travel to face an anemic Istanbul Basakse offense who have lost their first two games 2-nill. Manchester just lost at home to Arsenal for the first time in 14 years and I fully expect them to come out banging, especially in order to tune up for their trip to Everton this weekend. I wouldn’t overthink it, it’s great value considering how well they are favored.
Borussia Dortmund at Club Brugge +0.5, +1 (-115), 3 p.m.
Dortmund haven’t been fantastic this far in the tournament, and will travel to face a Belgian side which has been holding their own in the table. I think this is great value considering Dortmund will have their next game in the back of their heads: a clash at home against Bayern Munich. Dortmund does only sit a point back in the standings and I don’t see them pushing too hard for anything more than a draw. Even a 1-goal lead will push them to defend and allow Brugge to cover.
Parlay: Lazio PK 1H, Manchester United ML, Dortmund/Brugge DRAW. 1u to win 10.5u.
MLS
Orlando City at Columbus (PK +0.5, -105), 7:30 p.m.
Both teams sit 6 points back from first in the MLS, with two games to play. It would take a ton of luck for either team to overtake the two first place teams, Philadelphia and Toronto. Still, both teams should put all their energy to securing the win to ensure better seeding in the MLS cup which ends the season. They both sit with the same points and goal differential, meaning they won’t give up on scoring goals if they are up. I’m trending towards the Columbus DNB because they just beat first place Philadelphia and the bet has low juice. I’m also shooting for over 2.5, 3 goals scored (-110) due to the goal differential implications.
Chicago Fire FC (PK +0.5, -110) at Minnesota United, 8 p.m.
Chicago will be punching up in this one, but have a shot considering the context. The Fire are just within contention for the MLS playoffs, but are only in by a single goal in differential above Atlanta United. They really need the win, which is also true for home side Minnesota. United won a tight game against Colorado last week to move to fourth place in the Western conference, but absolutely need a win here if they want to secure a home game in the post season. They have a great defense which should be enough to hold Chicago at bay, making this game most likely a 1-0 win for either side. I’ll put my money on both teams playing tight with the Fire scoring a goal in desperation, Under 3 goals.
FC Dallas (+235) at Nashville SC (+115), 8:30 p.m.
Nashville is at home and has a good chance to overtake New England for sixth in the East and an automatic bid to the playoffs. Dallas lost 3-0 at Nashville two weeks ago, but have managed to win the two games and draw away since then. Nashville has two 1-1 draws at home and a 1-0 away loss in that time and will look to bounce back and secure their playoff spot in their last home game of the season. I expect a tight win to Nashville with both teams scoring, probably 2-1. I’ll take Nashville PK -0.5 (-120) and over 2.25 goals scored (-125).